Investors Diary

Dear Investor,
Welcome to sample a collection of my thoughts, research, financial advice, gut feeling and other works that i love to share with you from time to time.

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Tuesday, July 24, 2007

East African Tiger?

Economic Survey
The recent economic survey released by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in collaboration with the Ministry of Planning and National Development reveals that the global economy continued expanding in 2006 with economic activity in most regions exceding expectation. The global growth recorded a rise of 5.1% in 2006 mainly boosted by robust growth in US, Euro Area and China.
Oil prices continued to rise with metal prices being driven mainly by the high demand in the emerging Asian markets.The Sub Saharan Africa region experienced the strongest period of the economic expansion since 1970s with 5.2% growth which is projected to increase to 6.3% in 2007.
Real Gross Domestic Product
GDP expanded by 6.1% in 2006 compared to 5.7% in 2005, 5.1% in 2004, 2.9% in 2003 and 0.5% in 2002. The growth was boosted with agriculture and Transport and communication being the main source of growth.

Over these few years of the NARC administration the economy has grown marginally with further projections of even better growth in the next decade. It is worth noting that the economic projections for the 2007/2008 is expected to near the 7% mark if all macroeconomic variables at play continue being stable as the major economic drivers realize increased activity.

With this in mind i was left wondering whether Kenya will one day realize such spectacular growth as was witnessed within the Asian economies that came to be know as the Asian Tigers.

The Tigers
This term was coined in reference to the economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. These economies were also known as Asia's Four Little Dragons and were noted for maintaining high growth rates and rapid industrialization between the early 1960s and 1990s. In the early 21st century, with the original four Tigers at or near to fully developed status, attention has increasingly shifted to other Asian economies which are experiencing rapid economic transformation at the present time which include India, China, Japan, Indonesia and Phillipines amongst others.

East African Tiger?
With the foregoing spectacular growth of many economies in East Asia over the past 30 years which amazed many professionals i wondered whether some day Kenya will realize such no mean stature. With the current upgrading of Kenya in the world map from the Least Developed Country (LDC) to the Developing world status might be a sign of good tidings to come and a step in the right direction. The Kenyan economy has realized significant activity in Agriculture with alot of Investments by both local and foreign investors has also been boosted the transport and commucation infrastructure showing signs of further growth. Transport and Comunication, Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), Information Technology etc.

Vision 2030
I believe that with the launch of the vision 2030 by the government Kenya is so close yet so far to becoming a nation to reckon with interms of the world economic muscle. However alot of things have to be in place if Kenya is to go down the road of economic prosperity with the three vision pillars of Economic, Political and Social being at interplay. It is neccessary to provide a conducive environment for Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in industrial production/manufacturing, agriculture, business process oursourcing, financial markets/money banking and finance, technology, infrastructure, mobile telephony, transport and communication, tourism, energy, building and construction etc.

The vibrancy of the Kenyan stock market is notable and with further listing of more companies in this bourse investors across the global divide will stream in to invest in the country. Correspondingly, corporate governance within most corporations will be enhanced greatly as the watchful eye of the Capital markets and the Nairobi Stock Exchange keeps them in check. The capital market activity in recent times is much touted to spur economic growth leading to eventual development that would propel us to be an economic TIGER.


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