Kenya Capital Markets under the Microscope

The Kenyan capital markets is now under focus against a backdrop of shrinking investor confidence and continually droping market index in defiance of any fundamentals. Other stockbroking firms including Suntra Investment Bank are struggling over pending lawsuits due to illegal selling of investors shares.
CFC Financials had also been sued over illegal short selling of a client's shares and the landmark ruling requiring them to pay back Millions is set to change the financial landscape and send shivers down the spines of other struggling stockbrokers who may have been doing the same scheme in full glare of the CDSC and the CMA.

Radical Surgery
The current NSE meltdown has brought to the fore the urgent need for radical surgery of the Capital Markets Authority and the NSE as well as stringent regulations on stockbrokers and investment banks inorder to bring back the much needed market rescusitation.

Stockbrokers
Since the collapse of Francis Thuo, Discount and placing of Nyaga under statutory management many had been wary of venturing into the market worst hit being foreign investors. Infact foreign investors and Kenyans in Diaspora have been flooding the market with orders to sell stock as they seek safe havens to hedge against risk associated with global financial crisis.

Facts
The sharp drop in the NSE 20-Share Index from over 6000 to 2927 by Monday after an unprecedented rise of 279% by December 2007. Market capitalisation has dropped from 1.3 Trillion in June 2008 to slighty over 700 Billion this week.

Reforms
Though the capital markets is said to have been pursuing reforms in the capital markets, radical surgery of stockbrokers, investment banks, Nairobi Stock Exchange and Capital Markets Authority is urgently needed and the time is NOW!

NSE;Stocks to Watch in 2009

(The views expressed herein individual evaluations and should not be taken to mean a strong buy advisory but an indication of the likely movers and shakers of 2009)

As the year progresses several investors at the NSE are lost for words as their hard earned investments go down the drain however this is my take for 2009;

Likely Movers
Accesskenya
The enactment of the (in)famous media bill has opened a window of opportunity for investments by this company and indications are that Accesskenya is likely to launch a portal fashioned in the way of ebay to compete with others like mamamikes and find. This new window of orpotunity is likely to enhance the synergetic component and thrust the company to a higher level of profitability.
AccessKenya has been one of few star stocks at the NSE since its listing in mid last year, and for the better part of 2008.The information technology company had its share price pegged at Sh32 until May 2008, a valuation that was way above its IPO price of Sh10.Many will be watching as it flexes its muscle.

East African Breweries (EABL)
Day in day out the company continues to churn out large quantities of the famous 'imbibed froth'-beer that continues to attract new customers by the day. Despite the addition of sin tax by the Kenya Revenue Authority continually leading to substantial increase in the prices of this commodity, users continue to throng entertainment places to down the same and this will not stop any day soon.This only serves to enrich the company Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) and eventually net profitability that will affect share prices at the bourse.

Financial results released in September 2008 indicated that the giant brewer returned a pre-tax profit of Sh12.3 billion compared to Sh10.6 billion in 2007 and things are bound to get better.
EABL has maintained one of the highest dividend payout ratios among the NSE listed firms.The company will be doling out to investors an estimated total of Sh6.4 billion in dividends this year equivalent to a payout of Sh8.05 per share- representing a 10 per cent growth over last year.EABL is also turning to fully service the beverage market with the introduction of non- alcoholic drink.


CFC Stanbic
CFC-Stanbic Bank has set off to revamp its retail banking section over the next three years. This will see the bank, which is mainly considered to provide banking and financial services large corporate institutions, parastatals, non-governmental organizations, diplomatic missions and multi-nationals, open up a number of new retail branches across Kenya. In the last six month the bank has opened four new branches and its planning to open five more by the end of this year, bringing its outlets to 30 with over 40,000 clientele.
The expansion plan after the takeover/merger is likely to be well though out and planned to bring greater returns making it a good stock.

Equity Bank
The company has realize such enviable feats in recent times that the players in the banking sector are yearning for.Being Kenya’s largest retail bank, Equity, has posted an impressive growth that put its ahead of most companies in the banking league.Their expansion programme is growing and expectations are that its performance come the next quarter will still be sterling and hence a darling for most stock pickers.


Centum Investments
Centum investments has announced a 5 years strategic plans (2009-20013) that will help it raise additional capital and take advantage of the investment opportunities created by the global financial crisis. Though the amount and financial option was not detailed, the firm seeks to increase its foothold in sub-Sahara Africa has private foreign investors divest from the region. centum’s asset value has grown from Ksh.3 billion in 2004 to Ksh.8.4 billion at the end of last year with equity portfolio accounting for approximately Ksh.7.9 billion.
As the next quarter results draw closer many are watching for any surprised herein that might significantly transform its share price after the departure of its CEO earlier.

Despite Raging Bear Run at NSE, All is not Lost

As the stock market reels under the global financial crisis, contrasting with the bull run realized in early 2007, and lack of investor confidence, a group of investors are feeling most of the heat with their stocks plunging below issue prices. Never mind the fact that some of the victim companies surpass their industry average performance and experts forecasting a bright outlook.January analysts report card gives NSE an empty return.

New IPOs
As most analysts expect more Initial Public Offers of most companies this year, Investment advisers, brokers and investors alike might be taking a back seat before venturing to take up the Offers for sale coming their way.Kenya Pipeline is set to be made public(read an analysis by Bankelele) In fact the Government offered papers are now more secure and give better returns on Investments and this might have informed the issuance of the Infrastructure Bond by the Government mid this week.
Kenya has budgeted over Sh51 billion in infrastructure bonds comprising Sh33 billion and Sh18 billion through a debut international sovereign bond and long term domestic bonds respectively to finance rehabilitation and expansion of the road network.At the onset Treasury has issued a Sh18.5 billion infrastructure bond.Potential investors expected to take up this issue include commercial banks, insurance firms, pension funds and private firms.

Market Performance
Overall, all investors at the Nairobi Stock Exchange have lost considerably if the market performance gauge —the NSE 20-Share Index— and market capitalisation are anything to go by.The index has been oscillating around the 3100 and 3500 mark and the psychological 3000 mark might surpassed what with the low investor confidence, considerable erosion of the investments in most counters and low trade turnovers. The bear run might persist butr not for long as it is a cycle like in any other market of the world.

20 Share Index and NASI
In close to 3 years, the index has slid from a high of 6161 points recorded in February 2007,opening levels of 5016 points for 2008 and peak of 5445.66, on June 9, and the NASI has declined by 41.13 per cent from a peak of 116.243 to 68.52 in the same period.

Global Financial Crisis
The global financial crisis has exacerbated the situation as foreign investors, who were expected to cushion the stock against any panic sale, have joined the retail investors in offloading the stock to consolidate their investments and probably explore other possible investments in other emerging market that promise to retunr good earnings on investments.

Strong Fundamentals
The above notwithstanding, the Kenyan financial market is still growing stronger by the day and though the effects of contagion might be felt, it is not all that bleak a future after all.
A company like Safaricom that entered the market with alot of expectations amongst the investing public remains fundamentally strong,though its shares have slid below the Sh5 offer price since they debuted at the NSE on June 9 this year, and oscillating around sh 3 by the end of January 2009.

Most Profitable Company
Safaricom is currently ranking as the most profitable listed company in Eastern Africa, whose only undoing has been the huge supply of the 40 billion listed shares into a market that previously had a mere 15 billion shares which brings in a case of poor structuring by the investment advisors for the IPO or the greed to raise so much money from the public that would stop at nothing to acquire the company.

Profitability
Safaricom saw its pre-tax profit rise to Sh8.9 billion for the six months ending September 30 last year, up from Sh8.7 billion recorded over similar period in 2007, is strong since it controls about 80 per cent of the market and is operating in a growing industry—Information and Communication Technology.

Regional Comparison
Compared to its regional counterparts, the NSE has registered the biggest loss so far since the beginning of the year.

Grand Corruption and Grand Rogue Brockers on the Loose

The BD has a detailed story of the simmering wars between them and the Capital Markets Authority over regulatory measures taken to stamp more authority in order to ensure that investors confidence at the market is restored.The licensing war has seen the exit of CMAs Chairman.

Undervaluation
You may recall that currently there has been jitters in the market over the supposed undervaluation of various counters as well as the reluctance of various foreign investors to remit their cash for investments in the emerging market.

There is more than meets they eye in this saga. For a long time CMA has been a toothless bulldog in hibernation.

With various cases of grand corruption including the Triton saga confidence in our emerging market might be waning by the day and more still needs to be done for investments opportunities to attract rallied prices and increased attention in 2009.

Triton Saga
The case of Triton and Kenya Commercial Bank loan has led to price scare for the counter at the stock market as the mystery of missing millions deepens by the day.
The Kenya Commercial Bank has sued Triton Petroleum Company, under receivership, for Sh2 billion guaranteed through various debentures to import crude and refined oil to the Kenyan market.

7 Billion
The lump sum is part of Sh7 billion the oil dealer owes other banks among them Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank and a chain of oil companies.

Convergence
Bankers could soon be allowed to provide a diverse range of financial products including insurance services, if draft amendment proposals to the Banking Act prepared by Central Bank (CBK) are approved by the Attorney General.more

Emerging Stock Market Trends in 2009 (Part I)

As we move forward a look at the African stock markets amidst the contagion of the Sub prime Morgage crisis that emanated in the US might not be that rossy after all. The Capital Markets Authority did make a case for highly capitalized financial institutions and risk based supervision approach amongst other recommendations in view of the crisis.Business confidence did slide as most companies review their investment plans and strategies in 2009.

Global Financial Crisis
The year 2008 in global financial markets has been one of the most volatile since the 1930s.The last serious bear market originated in Asia in 1997, but this 2008 crisis originated in the US.

Currencies
During 2008,emerging market currencies weakened against the US dollar as a result of
the rush to the US dollar and US Treasury instruments.Investors sought “safe havens”
and US Treasuries were considered the safest haven.

ILower Interest Rates
Recognising the severity of the credit crunch,in October major developed and
emerging central banks lowered interest rates in an unprecedented globally coordinated monetary policy effort.This was followed by the implementation of fiscal stimulus measures and loosening monetary policies from governments and central banks in developed as well as emerging markets. Thus far, more than US$1 trillion has been pledged by governments around the world to rejuvenate their domestic economiesincluding China, the US, Germany, the UK, Taiwan, Spain, Japan, South Korea,Russia, France, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia.

Fastest Growing Economies
It is expected that the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies to continue to be akey driver of global economic growth.They are among the fastest growing economies in the world. The four markets together account for more than 40% of the world population. Domestic demand growth also remains robust. Moreover, Brazil and Russia are resource-rich countries and although there has been a recent fall in commodity prices, the longer trend for commodity prices is to increase and these countries will benefit from global demand for oil, steel, aluminum, pulp and other commodities.China continues to take great strides towards becoming a major global player.

Capital
Capital availability is the key question for emerging markets in 2009.Those who have it should do well.As for those who don't - it may be better not to ask.

This year is not going to be easy for the developing world. Lower commodity prices and slumping Western economies will damage growth. But with the United States, Western Europe and Japan all in recession and unlikely to emerge quickly, whatever growth there is in the world - not much - will be concentrated in emerging markets.

Emerging Market stocks
Given the steep market decline, investors have begun to shift their focus to the
increasingly attractive valuations in emerging markets.
NSE Chairman alluded that assets at the NSE are highly unbdervalued due to the persistent bearish trends that have failed to attract investors amidst current inflation and increase in the cost of living. Most investors at the NSE are retail.Uncertainty in the global financial markets is also suspected to be fuelling the investors’ jitters, with the deepening recession putting into doubt the chances of a quick recovery of stock markets.

2009 Outlook
While it is believed that the longer-term outlook for emerging markets remains positive due to the relatively strong fundamental characteristics and faster growth rate than theirdeveloped counterparts, 2009 is expected to be challenging. We can expect more volatility in view of slowing growth and recession concerns in major world economies,volatile exchange rates and commodity prices, and a global credit crunch.
Investors should brace for lower returns in the first quarter of the year 2009.

Safaricom Much touted IPO: Bits and Pieces

D-day At Last
Kenya's largest mobile telecommunications network service provider, Safaricom, will launch its initial public offer March 28 and closes on April 23 taking a total of 26 days. This offer for sale will give Kenyans amble opportunity to invest.

Stakes
The government will offer 25% of the issued ordinary shares of Safaricom. The IPO will offer 10 billion shares priced at 5 Kenyan shillings a share, which implies a value of KES200 billion ($3 billion).

High Expectations
Thw Governement hopes to raise KES50 billion from the IPO, which will be used to finance development programs and hopefully to supplement the budgetary deficit that had been witnessed in the FY 206/07.


Pools
The offer will be split into two pools - domestic and international. The international pool will be open to institutional investors only. The price will be determined through a book-building.
Investors in the domestic pool will have to buy a minimum of 2,000 shares. This means that any Kenyan intending to invest (and i know many including mama mbogas) are keen to have a stak of this 'sexy pie' and probably make a kill when it comes for trading in may.

Market Share
Safaricom's estimated market share at the end of December was 80%. The company has nearly 10 million subscribers.

Advisors
Morgan Stanley and with local investment bank, Dyer & Blair are the transaction advisors alongside other banks as citibank.

Official IPO site
The official IPO site is here

NSE will be most Volatile in 2008

Crisis
It is now evident that if the current political crisis is not resolved as soon as possible the NSE that is often the barometer of economic growth is in for the most volatile period with suppressed activity despite entry of foreign investors into the market.

Facts
Since the year began, the NSE has shed Sh44 billion in market capitalization from a high of Sh851 billion at the beginning of the year to Sh810 billion as at the close of trading yesterday - a five per cent drop.
During the same period, equity turnover has declined by almost 30 per cent from daily trades worth Sh505 million on December 24 last year to Sh347 million at the close of trading yesterday.

Economic Slowdown
Economists had predicted a slow down in the economy pointing to a dip in tourism revenues, disruption of agricultural production and lower business turnovers in the wake of recent political turmoil.

Investor Confidence
Pundits have been quite to point out that a speedy resolution of the current stalemate and rejuvenated investor confidence is key to a speedy economic recovery and renewed momentum in the equity market.

Post Election Violence
The outbreak of post-election violence has eroded investor confidence in the market leading to some of the most aggressive sale of shares at the bourse with retail investors as the most active.

January/February Trades
The market was throughout January characterised by thin trades with retail investors - rushing to liquidate their positions in the short term - as the main sources of supply.

Institutional Investors
Battered investor confidence has seen institutional investors concede that any resumption of normalcy at the stock market depends on a speedy settlement of the political crisis.

The Allure of NSE Growth Despite Electioneering Politics

20-share Index
It is noteworhty that the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) came from an earlier 10% plunge this year to exploit one of its most prosperous years of the decade with the 20-Share Index, rising to above 6,000 points at one point.The phenomenal growth of the 20-share index, a reflection of the investors' growing wealth, is expected to continue into the New Year as the capital and financial markets shed fears of political uncertainty, expected to end with the December 27 presidential polls.

New Listings
This year's stock market trade was continually dominated by the events of 2006, which saw the successful listing of the Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KENGEN). This warmed the once dormant market and brought in 250,000 first-time investors.The NSE owes its milestones this year to the increased market confidence, exemplified by the coming to the market of family-owned businesses. The listing of the Scangroup, a multiparty marketing, advertising and research firm and Access Kenya, enabled the NSE to diversify its source of income and grow its market capitalization to new heights, with the later becoming the first ICT company on the bourse.

Panic Selling
The market took a mid-year beating from political activity this year with the 20-Share Index plunging by 9.24% due to panic selling of shares, mainly by the first-time investors who did not understand the meaning of market correctional activities.The June market plunge initially seemed to be a bad precedent but it came as a blessing in disguise as foreign fund managers, who had exited the market in the mid-1990s, and had been watching the market from the sidelines, came back rushing to buy the shares.

Collapsed Stock Broker Replaced
Investors panicked after the market regulator took action against Francis and Thuo Partners, one of the oldest stockbrokers, which was found to violate trading rules by using investors' funds without consent.Mr. Francis Thuo was replaced by Renaissance Capital, which purchased the seat at Ksh420 million. The money was used to partly pay off investors who had lost money with the collapse of the rogue investment firm. The NSE paid up over Ksh.200 million.

Investor Numbers
The number of investors at the NSE rose to historical levels this year to hit 750,000 compared to the 80,000 investors who traded at the NSE in 2003. The NSE, however, estimates that only 100,000 shareholders trade actively. NSE still faces stiff challenges, especially on investor education, a portfolio which falls with the market regulator, the Capital Markets Authority (CMA). The NSE reached its decision to sell the vacant seat to the Russia-registered Renaissance Capital in a bid to deepen the capital market in Kenya, by bringing in foreign capital.

Renaissance Capital and Morgan Stanley
RenCap ecured a stockbrokerage license from the CMA, allowing it to enter the growing market in Kenya, while one of the world's greatest investment banks, Morgan Stanley, also gained entry into the Kenyan market, thanks to the pending Safaricom listing.
Morgan Stanley partnered with Dyer and Blair Investment Bank to win the coveted bid for transaction advisor for the Safaricom Initial Public Offer (IPO), which is expected to be the next big bang in Kenya's capital market.The mega deals which dominated the NSE in 2006 trickled over into 2007, constantly putting bourse on a steady growth path and shaping the market activity.

Kenya Reinsurance
State re-insurer, Kenya Reinsurance Corporation, statutorily allowed a 30% share in any insurance deal in the market, also came to the market this year, bringing on board a hoard of fresh investors, both local and foreign, who came to profit from the June meltdown.

Market Capitalization
This year, market capitalization increased to historical levels, from Ksh112.5 billion in 2002 to Ksh732 billion in mid 2007 before peaking at close to Ksh800 billion in December.
The 20-Share Index has also stabilized at an average of 5,500 although it breached the 6,000 mark within the year before taking a deep plunge due to political volatility. The growth of the share index from 1, 364.85 in 2002. The index stood at 5,332.03 as of 11 Dec.
The share index shed nearly 600 points in October this year, closing the second week of the month at 5005.89 points compared to a high of 5611 points in early September.

Scangroup, Equity, PTA and Barclays
The listing of 69 million Scangroup shares, the Equity Bank placement in the market's main investment segment, the listing of the PTA Ksh1 billion bond, the listing of Barclay's three-year corporate bond of Ksh5 billion, played as major movers of business.

Banks Profitability
Stock market analysts say the first six months of the year was dictated by the high after tax profits posted by the listed commercial banks increased.

Parting Shot
The new year portends new growth heights for the NSE as foreign investors flock into the Kenyan market after a decade of shying away. This is a clear indication that Kenya as an emerging market is going places.

Don't be left out!!!!

SME Listings at East African Bourses

SMEs
Small and Medium Enterprises play a vital role in any emerging economy. In Kenya the emergence of microfinance banking has catapulted the growth of SMEs.

East African Exchanges
NSE, DSE and USE collectively the East AfricanExchanges have plans to allow the listing of SMEs through relaxation of the stringent listing requirements that characterise these marts. The tough floatation rules have hindered most SMEs from floation their shares through IPOs.

SME Listings
The listing of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) is expected to provide more shares at the market, allowing investors to diversify their investments and help spread liquidity, which has at times distorted the valuation of some shares.The development, which will also be replicated by Kampala and Dar-es-Salaam bourses, will catapult the region into the same level with developed and middle level economies which allow listing for SMEs as a way of enhancing their contribution to the economic growth.

Regional Bourses Agree
The opening up of the regional bourses to SMEs by late 2008 was agreed on by the Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania heads of stock exchanges at the East African Securities Exchange Association (EASEA) meeting held in Kampala on September 7. This will spur the trading in the yer to be established over the counter market at these stock exchanges.

Kenya Diaspora Indispensable in Development

Remittance home

The Kenyan government has been courting kenyan investors abroad thanks to their pivotal role in economic recovery strategy through direct investments and economic development. Their role in development is crucial in replenishing the national coffers through their remittances.

In Kenya, it is estimated that at least $1 billion is being remitted annuallyup from about $750 million in 2005. Between 45 per cent and 65 per cent of the money is received informally and therefore not captured in official records. They are indeed the top foreign exchange earners.

IMF says that these remittances are now the single largest source of forex ahead of tourism and horticulture in Kenya and, in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, the transfers exceed Official Development Assistance(ODA) from development partners.

Sub Saharan Africa (SSA)

Kenya has emerged second to Nigeria among African recipients of foreign exchange remittances with households headed by women leading beneficiaries of offshore money transfers from individuals. These diaspora kenyans are influencing the macroeconomic variables back home including the exchange rate (Impacting the shilling), inflation rate and interest rates either directly or indirectly.

In absolute terms Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal are the largest recipients of remittances in the region. Remittances from african diaspora form a quarter of all exports for at least four countries on the continent. For Lesotho, Cape Verde, Uganda, and Comoros, for instance, remittances have since 2000 amounted on average to more than 25 per cent of export earnings. In 2005, remittances to the 34 Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) countries reporting are estimated to have been about US$6.5 billion.

In kenya, the money is largely used by relatives to fight poverty through education and health support as well as investments in real estate and shares listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange.

Diaspora at NSE

Kenyans professionals and entrepreneurs abroad have continued to play a crucial role in investments back home and for those who wish to return latter and enjoy their hard earn savings there preferred channels of investments has been the NSE and the property market. Infact 40 percent of new home buyers are Kenyans residing abroad acording to real estate developers.

The phenomenal growth of the NSE in the last 3 years and the price rally realized at the NSE last year, 2006, and partly in 2007 has seen many diaspora kenyans also remit their savings for investments in shares and other availabe options at the Nairobi Stock Exchange. Kenya Capital Investments Group is one such investment group that has consistently blogged on their activities and investments at the NSE. As some would say the future of ivnestments therefore lies in investment groups and why not given then feats realized by Trancentury in a span of less than ten years.

SSA vis other countries

Remittance flows to SSA are relatively small, 4 per cent of total remittances to developing countries and just 33 per cent of those to India, which receives the most. In contrast, countries in Latin America and the Caribbean received 25 per cent of all remittances, as did the countries of the East Asia and Pacific region.

Private Public Partnerships (PPP)

In 2006 the mutually beneficial relationship between the Capital Markets, the Government of Kenya and the Private Sector came to the fore with the raising of approximately Kshs. 12.04 billion, through the Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of Kenya Electricity Generating Company, Scangroup and Eveready and the sale of additional shares in Mumias Sugar Company (MSC). As a result of the IPOs, the number of Central Depository and Settlement (CDS) accounts has increased from 86,820 on February 1 2006 to 634,420 on February 14 2007, a six fold increase. These developments alongside the implementation of Automated Trading System (ATS) has spurred interest at the NSE from locals and diaspora kenyans.

Therefore...

The Kenyan Diaspora has increasingly become an important part of the Kenyan Economy. Through remittance, the Diaspora has become the leading foreign exchange earner for Kenya. This has led to concerted efforts to actively involve them in the economic transformation of Kenya through Kenya diaspora investment forums.

Future Prospects

Experts have estimated that the remittance can be increased to over 3.4 Billion dollars a year if effective investmentment strategies are put in place with the argument being that Kenyans in the Diaspora look for investments elsewhere because investing in Kenya under present conditions is very risky. The report on Kenya Diaspora Investment Forum alongside other concerted efforts ( including Kenyans Abroad Investment Fund-KAIF) to address diaspora needs should be clearly scrutinized and their recommendations implemented.

Revealed: Kenya's Exclusive Clubs

In Kenya there are many 'clubs' that are often deemed as only for members who have paid the joining fee. These 'clubs' are widespread and any new member intending to join must adhere to the strict guidelines and stringent rules set by those already with membership. These rules sometimes are inhibitions (choreographed stumbling blocks) meant to hinder any jokers from joining out of whims and not with serious consideration and well thought out intention.
Welcome to Kenya a place of exclusive clubs!

From sports facilities including golf clubs, tennis courts, swimming pools, gyms to night clubs and clandestine groups with 'Strictly Members Only' signs clearly imprinted in large bold letters at their entrance points, these exclusives places abound and are places arousing curiosity amongst the outsiders who would wish to have a peek at the goings-on in the inner circles of the clubs.

Investment Groups:
Talk about Investment groups and they have also become exclusively members only and sometimes a close politically correctness and patronage is an added advantage to the grouping. Remember Trancentury Group and the associated cliques. Its membership was started a few years ago and with right investment decisions the company have managed to amass alot of resources. Thanks to its closeness to the political elite, the company is now so exclusive and any new member is at the mercy of older members after paying hefty joining fees.

The sons and daughters of the Trancentury elite are now putting their best foot forward and have hit the road with their Baraka Ltd, another investment group fashioned in the style of Trancentury and upping their stakes in the investment arena.

Baraka Ltd:
Baraka Ltd (according to reliable source) is a new investment group consisting of politically connected young upcomming business entrepreneurs (mainly sons and daughters of the Trancentury elite) running their own successdul business ventures and possessing the requisite skills and academic papers to spruce up their investment endceavors and what more do they need. The sky is the limit!

Nairobi Stock Exchange:
The Nairobi Stock Exchange has also become an exclusive club with a few wealthy persons allegedly running the shows here. Do not forget that having the coveted seat at the NSE is also a subject of political maneuvres and off-the-cuff tactics.

Renaissance Capital:
Talking about the NSE, now Renaissance Capital (K) Limited moved a step closer to securing a stockbroker’s license when it won the tender for the purchase of the coveted seat on the Nairobi Stock Exchange tha fell vacant with the unprecedented collapse of Francis Thuo and Partner. The brokerage firm's wooes began with the sudden death of its main proprietor, Francis Thou.
Renaissance Capital bid was the second priced at Kshs 251 Million to Old Mutual Investment Management Services hefty price Sh452 million.

Now Renaissance Capital, Russia's leading Investment Bank, is now ushered into one of the most exclusive clubs—the 18-member NSE.

Turning the Heat on Financial Markets:
The Renaissance Group is a leading private investment bank operating mainly in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Renaissance Capital, which specialises in investing in high opportunity emerging markets, is estimated to have a market value of between $7 billion to $10 billion (over Sh700 billion) is set to turn the heat on local financial market players as it acquires more regulatory licenses to operate other services.
NIC Bank Capital had submitted a Sh180 million bid for the seat and was third.

Parliament:
As a matter of fact 2007 is an electioneering year and with several individual declaring their intetions to vie for the various seats, it is now emerging that the parliamentary seat is another coveted place that has become the preserve of the rich. With billions likely to be poured to 'shake every corner of the republic' it goes without saying that the monied will carry the day as the electorate blinded by small perks and handouts will rush to vote in their 'cherished leader' to join exclusive club of 222 members ( thanks to the rejection of the women bill and the constituencies bill that would have seen the number increase by 50- Nominated women and 40 new constituencies) with fat pockets, hefty salaries and substantial allowances to top it up.

Welcome to the club;

STRICTLY MEMBERS ONLY

and have a members day, wont you?

Mass Cross Listing in the Offing

11 Firms:

After my earlier posts on cross border listing (see Below), it is now emerging that eleven (11) firms have approached the regulators to cross list on the East African bourses. It is noteworthy however that although the regulators have been trying to level the playing ground, alot of issues still need to be addressed before companies join in this bandwagon.

East African Exchange:

With the establishment of an East African Exchange (EAE) also in the offing, the eleven companies are said to be as follows: Kenya with 5, 3 fromUganda and 3 from Tanzania.

Pioneers:

Earlier the Kenyan companies that had taken the cue to pursue cross border listing include East African Breweries (EABL), Kenya Airways (KQ) and Jubilee Insurance.

Listed Companies:

Among the east African players, Kenya still leads the pack with 53 firms and the number is expected to rise with the listing of Kenya Re,Safaricom and others soon to come. Der es salaam and Uganda Exchanges follows in the number of listed firms with only 7 and 6 respectively. This is excluding the Kenyan firms (EABL, KQ and JHL) that have poineered to cros list in the exchanges.

New Incentives:

The regulators have put in place alot of niceties for companies striving to cross list which include:

-Issuing a summarised Information Memorandum.

-No requirement of reporting accountant’s report.

-An abridged financial statements for the last five (5) years is acceptable.

-Provision of the latest annual or interim accounts submitted to the home exchange would be accepted as the latest financial statements.

-Standard initial fee of US$5,000 (Sh360,000) against previous amounts of US$21,126 (Sh1.5 million) to cross list its securities across Kenya and Uganda.

-However, only companies listed in the Main Investment Market Segment (MIMS) of both bourses will be eligible for cross listing. (Business daily)

Nonetheless, more still needs to be done to make the East African Integration a reality in all aspects then we can proudly talk about an Economic Integration, Political Integration and finally adopting a one currency for the East African Union.

Right Time to buy ICDCI

After looking through all the companies listed at the bourse, i though it would be wise to share with you this verdict on the ICDCI counter listed in the financials and investment sector of the Nairobi Stock Exchange.
Facts:
1. Earnings: ICDCI invest in companies that are expected to shows significant increase in earnings.
2. Strategic: The company in its strategy identifies companies that are strategic and require substantial cpaital outlays.
3. Partnerships: In its investment strategy, the company normally partners with like minded companies with expertise and essential business skills. This enables the company get the requisite board advice as well as avoid 100% risk in its investments portfolio that would have far reaching implications in the long run if deals go sour.
Prudence: The company undertake due diligence and stick to prudential allocation of assets to continuously create and enhance shareholders value.
Passion: The company has a passion for excellence and integrity through proactively managing a well diversified portfolio.

Shareholders % Shareholding
Government of Kenya (ICDC) 24%
Institutions 27%
Public 49%
Associated Companies Portfolio (%) Sector
1. Nairobi Bottlers 27% Beverage
2. Kisii Bottlers 17% Beverage
2. Rift Valley Bottlers 47% Beverage
3. Mount Kenya Bottlers 28% Beverage
4. Kenya Wines Holdings Beverage
5. Kenya National properties Property
6. General Motors 17.8% Industrial-Automotive
7. Eveready Batteries EA Ltd Industrial
8. Mather and Platt (K) Ltd 35% Industrial
9. AON Minet Insurance Brokers Financial and Services
10. UAP Provincial Insurance 24% Financial and Services
11. NAS Airport Services Services
12. Wildlife Works Industria- Textile
13. Uchumi Supermarkets Retail
14. Public Equiy Investments
15. Fixed Income Securities
16. Rift valley railways

Portfolio Percentage
1. Beverage 42%
2. Property 5%
3. Industrial 16%
4. Financial/Services 21%
5. Public Equity
6. Fixed Income Securities 5%
7. Transport

Note:
ICDCI is keen on expanding its private equity portfolio and is interested in companies not listed but have a robust business model in whatever sector they operate so as to provide equity capital and prefer companies looking to expand.
Verdict:
From the foregoing and the price movements at the NSE after the split which shows a 12 months high of Kshs80 and an average price of Kshs30 the price is likely to shoot up come the new calendar year.

Just invest and watch this space for more...

Financial Supermarket in the Offing

Trancentury:
It is quite evident that the wheeler-dealers at Trancentury cannot stop at anything until they get what they want.

Jimna Mbaru:
Now Jimna Mbaru the director of Britak, Chairman of Dyer and Blair Investment Bank, Chairman of NSE and a member of the Trancentury Group, as well as the a shareholder of Equity Bank has his eyes on Housing Finance rights.

Britak-Equity partnership:
By allowing Britak and Equity partnership to take over the rights of CDC (24.9%)Government (7.32%) and NSSF (10.35%) this would create one of the leading financial services supermarket in this part of the world as well as make it one of the leading shareholders of the firm with a stake in decision making through its voting rights.

Synergy:
If you can fathom this:

Equity Bank: Leading Lender/Bank to the SMEs

Dyer and Blair: Top Investment Bank and Stockbroker

Britak: Has interests in Insurance (British American Insurance) and Asset Management (BAAM)

Housing Finance: One of the top listed Mortgage companies in Kenya offering finances for real estate development, purchase etc

Trancentury: has interests in telecommunication, stock market, infrastructure, Banking, ICT etc


Investopedia Says:

For the consumer, a financial supermarket can offer convenience and efficiency, since his/her money is not being continually shifted from one institution to another. For the institution, an all-encompassing relationship with the consumer is more profitable than handling just one aspect of a customer's financial needs.

Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE):
With NSE now trying to sell information to investors even the price lists through a shrouded company call MediaCorp might be another conspiracy by those connected with Trancentury and the stock market investment elite to deny most yearning investors the requisite information to make informed decisions.

Investing at Home while away from Home

I am looking for kenyans abroad who have the intention and ability to invest in the now vibrant Kenyan stock market. anyone out there????

Stock market has become the latest fad in Kenya and many rural folks young and old, men and women and rushing to cash in on this new craze.

The expected listing of new companies in the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) including Kenya Re and Safaricom is expected to add an impetus to the vibrancy and ensure better returns for investors.

Anyone who is abroad and wants to channel foreign direct investments into kenya to drop me a line and lets see how far we can go this year. For financial advice, company analysis, portfolio management and many more we can always talk.

Jeff