Investors Diary

Dear Investor,
Welcome to sample a collection of my thoughts, research, financial advice, gut feeling and other works that i love to share with you from time to time.

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More latters as we strive the world of investing fun , more fun and alot of fun.
Showing posts with label Broker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Broker. Show all posts

Monday, August 27, 2007

CMA: A Toothless Bulldog in Hibernation

Capital markets developments:
The budgetary estimates laid down during the financial year 2007/08 spelt out the following developments as far as the capital markets is concerned:
• The percentage of IPOs reserved for East African residents has been increased from 25% to 40%.
• Dividends not claimed from listed companies after seven years are to be remitted to the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF), which shall now be overseen by an ICF Board.
• The CMA can now impose sanctions, including financial penalties (not exceeding Kshs 10 million for institutions and Kshs 5 million for individuals). These shall be paid into the Investor Compensation Fund. In addition, the general penalty under the CMA Act has been increased to Kshs 15 million.

CMA on the Spot:
The CMA over the last few years due to the collapse of giant Uchumi Supermarkets and Francis Thuo and Partners as well as issues of insider trading that has been allegedly the case in most brokerage houses. Other issues include the issue of bouncing cheques as proceeds from the sale of securities to their clients by some rather big brokers in full view of CMA.
Unlike the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) that has been on its toes in the regulation of Commercial Banks and the Monetary Policy, the CMA has been in hibernation. The CMA has been a stumbling block in the establishment of new brokerage firms and investment banks in the industry due to its high handed rules and unclear underdeals that seem to be doing runs this institition.

Applications:
In essence there are more than 200 applications for brokerage firms estblishment gathering dust at the CMA premises but upto now nothing has been done to them and essentially means no new broekerage firm will be coming up to help meet the increasing demand amongst the investing public that has seen long queues behind brokerage houses during IPOs. Their weakness is also being demonstrated by their inability to allow the opening up of an Over The Counter (OTC) market which thrives in many countries.

Stocks Agents:
Due to CMA’s weakness, there has been a huge retail market that has sprung up since September 2005 in the form of small starters who practice as stockbrocking agents at a commission ranging from between 20-50% of the brokerage fee. Although this is a good starting point for practitioners in the industry, it denies many entrepreneurs the opportunity to receive full commission for the clients they serve very diligently and with a lot of professionalism. Indeed, the agents also need their cover to limit underpaying by the powerful brokers who control the industry. Further, there is also need for the establishment of the stocks agents association although there have been alot of stumbling blocks on the way. Infact these agents should also operate like insurance agents but apparently as of now they not allowed to serve more than one broking house.

Underdevelopment of Equity Market:
The CMA takes the blame for our underdeveloped equity market. It goes without saying that real growth should start from the root- the brokerage firms. My recommendation would be that the CMA encourages more players (brokerage firms and investment banks) to get into the industry. I would also encourage the CMA to get tougher on regulation to avoid conflict of interests that has seen an industry player being the shareholder of some listed companies as well as the chairman of the NSE. This creates a compromising situation and sometimes it would be difficult to differentiate between shareholding and management.

Quarterly Reports:
This will call for industry scanning and allowing for public scrutiny. I would propose quarterly publication of accounts in the dailies in the same way commercial banks do. This should be done with the help of external auditors to guarantee transparency. My justification for this is the fact that like commercial banks, they too are handling public funds and like a listed firm, it is of importance to know that a firm is not highly exposed and be assured of its credibility.
With such measures, there would be no cases of losers in the stock market as was witnessed in the Uchumi collapse where shareholders could not even get the par value of the share. The Capital Markets Authority recently came up with the Investor Compensation Fund.

Establishment of the Investor Compensation Fund:
The ICF is established under the Capital Market Act Cap485A of the laws of Kenya and stipulates as follows under Article 18:

18. (1) There shall be established a Fund to be known as the Investor Compensation Fund for the purposes of granting compensation to investors who suffer pecuniary loss resulting from the failure of a licensed stockbroker or dealer, to meet his contractual obligations.
(2) The Compensation Fund shall consist of -
(a) such moneys as are required to be paid into the Compensation Fund by licensed persons;
(b) such sums of money as are paid under this Act as fines or penalties or under section 34 as ill-gotten gains where those harmed are not specifically identifiable;
(c) such sums of money as accrue from interest and profits from investing Compensation Fund moneys;
(d) such sums of money recovered by or on behalf of the Authority from entities whose failure to meet their obligations to investors result in payments from the Compensation fund; and
(e) interest deemed to accrue on the proceeds of a public issue or offer for sale of shares of a company listed or to be listed on an approved securities exchange, between the closing date and the date of dispatch of shares certificates or refund cheques, to be determined at the rate prescribed by the Authority.
(f) such sums of money as are received for purposes of the Compensation Fund from any other source approved by the Minister.
(3) Moneys which have accumulated in the Compensation Fund may be invested by the Authority in such manner as may be determined by the Authority.

Fund Limits:
An issue of importance is that compensation is limited to ksh 50,000 per client whereas the total pay out should not be more than 50% of the fund. There is also a maximum of ksh 5 million per collapsed broker / investment bank is payable as compensation to investors. Since NSE and CMA normally gets commission from their sale/buy orders of 0.01% there is need to revamp and strengthen Investor Compensation leading to investors shying away from the same.

Speculative Tendencies:
As the market slowly rejuvenates and with good prospects of economic growth projected to be above 6% for 2007/08 things are looking good for our stock market. It is also important to note that the occurrences at Francis Thuo and Uchumi Supermarket have served as a good lesson to many equity investors, as they have realized that one can be a millionaire overnight (as witnessed in the KenGen IPO) or end up a poor man for the rest of his life- as was witnessed in the Uchumi collapse. But as with all speculative markets, risk takers will take positions when the market is at its lows.
In Kenya, we have a potential investment population that is almost equivalent to the number of Kenyan voters being served by only eighteen (18) brokerage firms, save for the new broker, Renaissance Capital ( Russia's biggest Investment bank and a leader in most financial sectors as asset management, corporate finance etc) that has recently been awarded the license to provide investment banking and stockbroking services in place of the collapsed Francis Thuo broking house.

Financial Deepening and innovations:
CMA and NSE have been very slow in the opening up of the Over-The-Counter (OTC) market as well as adoption of new markets and products such as financial derivatives-futures, forwards, swaps, options that would widen the scope of available investment options for investors. Therefore investors have been struggling to cash in on the few available options moslty shares, bonds and equities. In this sectors despite the rapid growth that has been witnessed over a few years ago dur to increased IPOs by companies, there is still limited options compared to other markets in Africa such as Nigeria with over 190 Listed companies and capitalization off $2.23B, Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) with over 400 listed forms and Cairo Stock Exchange and Alexandia Stock Exchange which forms Egypt Stock Exchange has over 833 companies. NSE has only 53 companies and several IPOs slated for the year.

Rogue Brokers:
CMA has also failed to reign in on rogue broker some trading in clients shares to rake in millions without bating an eyelid. Some of these brokers have become overnight millionnaires whereas their clients are leading modest lifestyles save for their stocks. In the industy, it is evident that there is very little room for competition.which has encouraged unprofessionalism. You will be surprised at how many times you miss a good deal at the expense of someone with a bigger account than you do or how many times you have issued sale or buy orders to your broker only to call them back a week and they haven't executed the same. At times they are seemingly oblivious of the happenings therein with rude receptions to accompany it.

Frequently, brokers have told their clients that they were unable to execute their orders because on that particular day, they were ‘dealing for their institutional investors’. When you are in such a predicament, you have no choice but to wait until the day when the stock broker goes ‘retail’. Sad enough, this could be long after share prices changed tremendously.

Hereditary Management and Protectionism:
Again, the management of most brokerage firms stands a big test. Notably, most of the brokerage firms are family owned and have adopted a very cyclic management system where the next of kin is always the person to take over. This has attracted a traditional approach to trading where fundamentals do not apply. It is not wrong to argue out that due to this, the same management has paved its way to control the regulators and the other players namely the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) and the NSE. The implications of this are increased protectionism when it comes to encouraging new players and sticking to old rules. As always new entrants are often seen with a suspicious eye and have to be vetted by a clique that consist of the 18 broking houses. This always need one to be on good books with them lest the deal goes sour. This is not encouraging for Kenya as an emerging market.

Market Research:
The current family set up of the brokerage firms has also kept talent at bay always employing their next of kin or people known to them. You will perhaps agree with me that there has been very limited research and commentaries that come from brokerage firms and investment banks. Contrary, the Fund Managers and Asset Managers have done limited research aimed at giving buy and sell recommendations geared towards their client needs. For the many years that the NSE 20 Share Index has been the basis of investment for most of its users, there has been no research or proposal sent for approval to CMA.

US Markets:
Compare this to the United States that has over 10 Indices rating the performance of the overall market and at least one index rating every single market segment. Being the market pros to their routing trading activity; stock brokers and investment banks are the only people who can steer growth as far as research is concerned. The US also have the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) similar to ou CMA that has been instrumental in ensuring that the market players are closely watched to avoid major corporate scandals line Enron's saga.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC):
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (commonly known as the SEC) is a United Stated government agency having primary responsibility for enforcing the federal securities laws and regulating the securities industry/stock market.
The SEC was established by the United States Congress in 1934 as an independent, non-partisan, quasi-judicial regulatory agency following years of depression caused by the Great Crash of 1929. The main reason for the creation of the SEC was to regulate the stock market and prevent corporate abuses relating to the offering and sale of securities and corporate reporting. The SEC was given the power to license and regulate stock exchanges. Currently, the SEC is responsible for administering six major laws that govern the securities industry.
These encompass the Securities Act of 1933, the Trust Indenture Act of 1939, the Investment Company Act of 1940, the Investment Advisors Act of 1940, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 amongst other statutes.
The SEC enforces the statutory requirement that public companies submit quarterly and annual reports, as well as other periodic reports amongst other regulations. More...

Compensation of investors who lost their money in collapsed stockbroker Francis Thuo kicks off this morning amid a simmering row between the Nairobi Stock Exchange and the regulator, Capital Markets Authority, over what to do with whatever remains of the Sh250 million raised from the sale of the firm’s seat at the bourse.The two institutions are fighting behind the scenes over the more than Sh100 million expected to remain after all claims are paid

Parting Shot:
A seasoned stockbroker with a good track record is an indespensable person in the pursuit of wealth. In the same breadth, an efficient management authority, in this case the CMA is fundamental in the management of all the players at the capital markets to ensure proper performance, allay investors fears and ensure security of investments for the investing public.

CMA should stop being a toothless bulldog and bite where it ought to!

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Revealed: Kenya's Exclusive Clubs

In Kenya there are many 'clubs' that are often deemed as only for members who have paid the joining fee. These 'clubs' are widespread and any new member intending to join must adhere to the strict guidelines and stringent rules set by those already with membership. These rules sometimes are inhibitions (choreographed stumbling blocks) meant to hinder any jokers from joining out of whims and not with serious consideration and well thought out intention.
Welcome to Kenya a place of exclusive clubs!

From sports facilities including golf clubs, tennis courts, swimming pools, gyms to night clubs and clandestine groups with 'Strictly Members Only' signs clearly imprinted in large bold letters at their entrance points, these exclusives places abound and are places arousing curiosity amongst the outsiders who would wish to have a peek at the goings-on in the inner circles of the clubs.

Investment Groups:
Talk about Investment groups and they have also become exclusively members only and sometimes a close politically correctness and patronage is an added advantage to the grouping. Remember Trancentury Group and the associated cliques. Its membership was started a few years ago and with right investment decisions the company have managed to amass alot of resources. Thanks to its closeness to the political elite, the company is now so exclusive and any new member is at the mercy of older members after paying hefty joining fees.

The sons and daughters of the Trancentury elite are now putting their best foot forward and have hit the road with their Baraka Ltd, another investment group fashioned in the style of Trancentury and upping their stakes in the investment arena.

Baraka Ltd:
Baraka Ltd (according to reliable source) is a new investment group consisting of politically connected young upcomming business entrepreneurs (mainly sons and daughters of the Trancentury elite) running their own successdul business ventures and possessing the requisite skills and academic papers to spruce up their investment endceavors and what more do they need. The sky is the limit!

Nairobi Stock Exchange:
The Nairobi Stock Exchange has also become an exclusive club with a few wealthy persons allegedly running the shows here. Do not forget that having the coveted seat at the NSE is also a subject of political maneuvres and off-the-cuff tactics.

Renaissance Capital:
Talking about the NSE, now Renaissance Capital (K) Limited moved a step closer to securing a stockbroker’s license when it won the tender for the purchase of the coveted seat on the Nairobi Stock Exchange tha fell vacant with the unprecedented collapse of Francis Thuo and Partner. The brokerage firm's wooes began with the sudden death of its main proprietor, Francis Thou.
Renaissance Capital bid was the second priced at Kshs 251 Million to Old Mutual Investment Management Services hefty price Sh452 million.

Now Renaissance Capital, Russia's leading Investment Bank, is now ushered into one of the most exclusive clubs—the 18-member NSE.

Turning the Heat on Financial Markets:
The Renaissance Group is a leading private investment bank operating mainly in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Renaissance Capital, which specialises in investing in high opportunity emerging markets, is estimated to have a market value of between $7 billion to $10 billion (over Sh700 billion) is set to turn the heat on local financial market players as it acquires more regulatory licenses to operate other services.
NIC Bank Capital had submitted a Sh180 million bid for the seat and was third.

Parliament:
As a matter of fact 2007 is an electioneering year and with several individual declaring their intetions to vie for the various seats, it is now emerging that the parliamentary seat is another coveted place that has become the preserve of the rich. With billions likely to be poured to 'shake every corner of the republic' it goes without saying that the monied will carry the day as the electorate blinded by small perks and handouts will rush to vote in their 'cherished leader' to join exclusive club of 222 members ( thanks to the rejection of the women bill and the constituencies bill that would have seen the number increase by 50- Nominated women and 40 new constituencies) with fat pockets, hefty salaries and substantial allowances to top it up.

Welcome to the club;

STRICTLY MEMBERS ONLY

and have a members day, wont you?

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Kenya Re IPO Opens Despite Court Case


Kenya Re IPO:
It is now official that the Kenya Re IPO will continue despite the court case filed by a policyholder with the collapsed United Insurance Company that sought to stop the process. Finance Minister However said that the IPO will go one despite court case adding that they had not been served with the court order.
Mr Apollo Mburu Gichuhi moved to court and argued as follows:

-Vital Information regarding the Kenya Re Ipo had been withheld from the market i.e. Kenya Re had failed to show the true picture as the statutory manager of the collapsed United Insurance in its books.
-Policyholders of the collapsed United Insurance had not been settled.
-Main raised from the IPO would be lost in paying out claims to the United Insurance policyholders.
-CMA to quash the floatation intended to raise Kshs 2B until the plight of the collapsed UIC policyholders is addressed.

Hon Kimunya argued that they had not been served with the court order and the IPO will go on nontheless adding that all the allegations had no legal basis.

NSE:
The Government plans to sell a 40% stake (240M Shares) in Kenya Re for Sh2.28 billion ($34.09 million at Sh9.50 per share. Trading is slated to start on August 27 at the NSE. Prospectus would be available to the public on Wednesday.

Placement Costs:
The case threatens to further escalate the placement cost which have so far shot above budget by 109M as legal fees to pursue the case would be needed. The increase of 109M was payments to consultants retained to advise on the process.
The overall cost of the Sh2.3 billion transaction has risen by 60 per cent to Sh289 million from Sh180 million.

Previous IPO Costs:
On a comparative basis previous IPOs cost less than Kenya Re.
-Ken Gen IPO which was valued at Sh7.8 billion cost Sh401 million.
-Eveready’s IPO valued at Sh639 million cost Sh42 million.
-Access Kenya paid out Sh40 million.
The huge increase has resulted in the overall expenses as a percentage of the gross proceeds rising to double digit range of 12.67 per cent from the previous estimates of 7.91 per cent.

Lead Transaction Advisors:
The consortium consist:
-Dyer and Blair Investment Bank
-PFK Kenya and
-QED Actuaries and Consultants r

Their costs rose by 56 per cent to Sh25 million from Sh16 million quoted in the initial bid documents. The reason given for the huge increase on work related to the defunct Kenya National Assurance Corporation (KNAC) which was meant to be part of Kenya Re but was the plan was shelved the last minute to avoid queries on Kenya Re accounts.Of interest and related to this is that the cost of the lead and co-sponsoring broker dropped substantially from Sh12 million to Sh600, 000. No reason is provided for the phenomenon drop.

Join Lead Cosponsoring Broker:
The joint lead sponsoring brokers for Dyer and Blair are CFC Financial Services and Standard Investment Bank with Suntra Investment Bank acting as the co-sponsoring broker.

Registrars:
Another cost escalation is attributed to the provision of registrar services and the provider is Kenya Commercial Bank, which will also act as the receiving bank. The cost spiked five times to Sh5.9 million from Sh1.5 million. The reason attributed to the increase in the provision of the service is on software licence fee.
Again this raised the question of whether the provider knew the real cost at the time of bidding for the task and why they would review the cost by such a huge margin.The legal advisor consortium also reviewed their charges by a whopping 71 per cent.

Legal Team:
Just like the lead transactional advisor, the legal team made up of Hamilton, Harrison and Mathews, Rachier and Amollo and Denton Wilde Sapte of London claim the cost increase is associated with KNAC related work.The delay of the IPO following intermittent postponement has seen a threefold increase in the advertising and public relations costs.

Advertisement/Public Relations:
The advertising cost spiked by 171 per cent to Sh57.7 million from Sh21.4 million. Lowe Scanad a subsidiary of the just recently quoted Scangroup is handling the PR job.

Controversies:
This court controversy adds another twist to the IPO fate and threatens to scuttle the much awaited listing. Other controversies that dogged the shares floatation in the past include a forensic report alleging grand corruption that led to the firing of the MD (Jonhson Githaka) and his Finance Controller (James Kinyua) pending investigation. The two had allegedly diverted company resorces to personal use.