Thank You Mr. Speaker

The much awaited speaker's ruling on who should be the leader of government business in parliament was delivered with the wit, skill and utmost consideration to the weight it had.

Country First
Given the kind of bickering that had been blatantly exhibited by both sides of the political divide this was an acid test to the speaker and behooved him to use the sword like the proverbial Solomon or provide astute leadership and the latter proved to be his second name. He surely put the country first in full cognizance of the precarious precipice we fell into after the disputed elections.

Two Principals
The evident refusal by the two principals to consult in full flare and glare of the public is a sad indictment on the future of the Grand Coalition Government after the enactment of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act and subsequent entrenchment in the Constitution. This display of grandstanding is uncalle for, and unneccessary in we are truly concerned aboup steering the country to economic growth.

Investors and Investments
It is clear that with the current stalemate and political uncertainty foreign investors seeking to venture and bring the much needed foreign direct investment will surely shy away.

Stock Market
The financial markets all over the world respond to any slight fundamental news and uncertain political environment in our country does not help. Our leadership show know best at this time when our stock markets is still wading the murky waters of world financial meltdown occassioned by the subprime mortgage crisis. Its time they put their acts together!

Despite Raging Bear Run at NSE, All is not Lost

As the stock market reels under the global financial crisis, contrasting with the bull run realized in early 2007, and lack of investor confidence, a group of investors are feeling most of the heat with their stocks plunging below issue prices. Never mind the fact that some of the victim companies surpass their industry average performance and experts forecasting a bright outlook.January analysts report card gives NSE an empty return.

New IPOs
As most analysts expect more Initial Public Offers of most companies this year, Investment advisers, brokers and investors alike might be taking a back seat before venturing to take up the Offers for sale coming their way.Kenya Pipeline is set to be made public(read an analysis by Bankelele) In fact the Government offered papers are now more secure and give better returns on Investments and this might have informed the issuance of the Infrastructure Bond by the Government mid this week.
Kenya has budgeted over Sh51 billion in infrastructure bonds comprising Sh33 billion and Sh18 billion through a debut international sovereign bond and long term domestic bonds respectively to finance rehabilitation and expansion of the road network.At the onset Treasury has issued a Sh18.5 billion infrastructure bond.Potential investors expected to take up this issue include commercial banks, insurance firms, pension funds and private firms.

Market Performance
Overall, all investors at the Nairobi Stock Exchange have lost considerably if the market performance gauge —the NSE 20-Share Index— and market capitalisation are anything to go by.The index has been oscillating around the 3100 and 3500 mark and the psychological 3000 mark might surpassed what with the low investor confidence, considerable erosion of the investments in most counters and low trade turnovers. The bear run might persist butr not for long as it is a cycle like in any other market of the world.

20 Share Index and NASI
In close to 3 years, the index has slid from a high of 6161 points recorded in February 2007,opening levels of 5016 points for 2008 and peak of 5445.66, on June 9, and the NASI has declined by 41.13 per cent from a peak of 116.243 to 68.52 in the same period.

Global Financial Crisis
The global financial crisis has exacerbated the situation as foreign investors, who were expected to cushion the stock against any panic sale, have joined the retail investors in offloading the stock to consolidate their investments and probably explore other possible investments in other emerging market that promise to retunr good earnings on investments.

Strong Fundamentals
The above notwithstanding, the Kenyan financial market is still growing stronger by the day and though the effects of contagion might be felt, it is not all that bleak a future after all.
A company like Safaricom that entered the market with alot of expectations amongst the investing public remains fundamentally strong,though its shares have slid below the Sh5 offer price since they debuted at the NSE on June 9 this year, and oscillating around sh 3 by the end of January 2009.

Most Profitable Company
Safaricom is currently ranking as the most profitable listed company in Eastern Africa, whose only undoing has been the huge supply of the 40 billion listed shares into a market that previously had a mere 15 billion shares which brings in a case of poor structuring by the investment advisors for the IPO or the greed to raise so much money from the public that would stop at nothing to acquire the company.

Profitability
Safaricom saw its pre-tax profit rise to Sh8.9 billion for the six months ending September 30 last year, up from Sh8.7 billion recorded over similar period in 2007, is strong since it controls about 80 per cent of the market and is operating in a growing industry—Information and Communication Technology.

Regional Comparison
Compared to its regional counterparts, the NSE has registered the biggest loss so far since the beginning of the year.

Financial Market Engineering in Kenya

Tremendous changes are occurring in financial markets and trading organizations as a result of technology developments. These advances in IT have created significant opportunities for;
1. Economies of scale,
2. Reduced transaction costs, and
3. Enhanced trading liquidity.
New market systems also create major risks for exchanges and their operators stemming as a result of competitive forces unleashed by open, global markets and real-time access.

Engineering questions to address for each of these three areas are:
1. Microstructure – What auction or other negotiation protocol serves in the interest of participants? Which protocols are innovative and applicable?
2. Infrastructure – How can the market protocols be implemented in a decentralized, highly scalable IT architecture? What technologies should be used? Which capacity and functionality demands have the highest priority?
3. Business governance structure – Who controls the market as an organization, and enhances its financial performance? What are the promising revenue models? Which services should be offered to whom at what price?

Since the outcomes from configuring these three dimensions today are still imperfectly understood, designing markets remains a challenging task. The approach of market engineering proposes that the design of electronic markets be approached holistically. Holistically means that all areas of the design – the microstructure, the infrastructure as well as the business structure – are simultaneously considered. The configuration of these different dimensions of a market is
guided by a structured engineering process.

As we strive to enhance the performance of our financial markets, it is imperative that we consider:

-Best Execution – What do we want from our markets?
-Innovative Products, Trading Mechanisms, and Services for Electronic Markets;
-Performance of market platforms;
-Auction and matching techniques;
- Models, methods, and tools for financial market
engineering; and
-Integrating mechanisms for multiple market modalities.

Growing our emerging market is challenging but realizable. Lets build our financial markets to status of the top dogs!!!

Financial Sector Deepening Panacea for Emerging Markets

Financial deepening
This refers to the increased provision of financial services with a wider choice of services geared to all levels of society.It also refers to the macro effects of financial deepening on the larger economy. More financial deepening generally means an increased money supply. The more liquid money is available in an economy, the more opportunities exist for continued growth.
It can also play an important role in reducing risk and vulnerability for disadvantaged groups, and increasing the ability of individuals and households to access basic services like health and education, thus having a more direct impact on poverty reduction.

Financial Markets
In economics a financial market is a mechanism that allows people to easily buy and sell financial securities (such as stocks and bonds), commodities (such as precious metals or agricultural goods), and other items of value at low transaction costs and at prices that reflect the efficient market hypothesis. Financial markets have evolved significantly over several hundred years and are undergoing constant innovation to improve liquidity.

Growing Interest in financial deepening
There has been a growing interest, around the developing world and economies in transition, in the promotion of rural financial deepening. The hope of better risk sharing, more efficient allocation of capital, more productive investment, and, ultimately, higher standards of living for all is propelling the drive for stronger connections between financial systems across the world.
Moreover, attention has gradually shifted, from the earlier exclusive emphasis on credit,
towards a growing recognition of the importance of different types of financial services,
including:
-Deposit facilities and similar means to accumulate liquid reserves and hold
stores of value.
-Payments instruments and opportunities to send and receive remittances
and to exchange currencies and
-Mechanisms to manage liquidity and cope teh risks.

Asian economies, particularly emerging markets, are taking an active part in this quest, at both the regional and global levels. At the global level, Asia's integration with the international financial system is well advanced.

Financial Integration
In the years since the 1997–98 financial crisis, Asian governments have affirmed their intention to promote financial integration at the regional level with a view to both reducing vulnerabilities and improving the allocation of savings. A series of initiatives have been launched to boost regional self-sufficiency, ranging from information sharing to financing arrangements in foreign exchange. Governments are also taking steps to deepen regional bond markets to reduce reliance on bank financing and to shelter the regional economy from the possible repercussions of future volatile capital flows originating elsewhere in the world.

Financial Sector Deepening in Kenya
The Financial Sector Deepening (FSD) Trust was established in early 2005 to support the development of financial markets in Kenya as a means to stimulate wealth creation and reduce poverty.more

Financial Markets Contagion

Financial market
The financial market is an en elaborate markets that encompass the money market and the capital market. The money market facilitates short term borrowing whereas the capital markets provides for long term lending.

Financial market Interconnection
Advances in information and communication technology has seen many financial markets become interconnected and more often information released in one place will be replicated in other markets either positively or negatively depending on the nature. In Kenya, the regulators have been asked to be vigilant against the possibility of Kenya being affected by the financial crisis currently facing other parts of the world.

Financial contagion
Financial contagion refers to the phenomenon when one country's economy is negatively affected because of changes in the asset prices of another country's financial market.One particular example of this can be seen during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. A more recent crisis where disruptions quickly spread into other areas of financial markets is the Subprime mortgage financial crisis in August 2007.

Subprime Virus
The subprime virus has gone global. Starting as a localised outbreak in the US market for risky subprime mortgages, it has spread into the supposedly safer markets and even into prime mortgages. Meanwhile, it has crossed into other loan species – particularly leveraged lending, where ballooning spreads have rattled the market and left banks holding big chunks of debt.

Effects
Those with bad leveraged bets face falling collateral values, tighter lending from prime brokers and illiquidity in some assets. That is probably exacerbated by investors seeking redemptions after two Bear Stearns funds blew up in June. That can force a fire sale of assets or a redemption freeze and more fear. more

Kenya financial market
Here in Kenya, although analysts concede the probability of contagion is low, the call is being made in view of the fact that foreign investors have increasingly been looking at the Kenya’s financial markets as a safer alternative to the developed and emerging markets where there has arisen a crisis resulting from failure of risky and poorly structured mortgage dubbed “sub-prime mortgages” market.The Central Bank of Kenya, Capital Markets Authority and the Nairobi Stock Exchange and Treasury are institutions that are in one way or another involved in monitoring of developments in the financial markets.

Emerging markets (EMs) Capital Markets
EMs far from the source of the initial shock can be victims though they are innocent bystanders. Because contagion is possible and likely for emerging markets the cost of capital market contagion could be major.

Big Q
The question is whether the contagion, which started in US housing, spreads back from financial markets into the real economy.

CMA: A Toothless Bulldog in Hibernation

Capital markets developments:
The budgetary estimates laid down during the financial year 2007/08 spelt out the following developments as far as the capital markets is concerned:
• The percentage of IPOs reserved for East African residents has been increased from 25% to 40%.
• Dividends not claimed from listed companies after seven years are to be remitted to the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF), which shall now be overseen by an ICF Board.
• The CMA can now impose sanctions, including financial penalties (not exceeding Kshs 10 million for institutions and Kshs 5 million for individuals). These shall be paid into the Investor Compensation Fund. In addition, the general penalty under the CMA Act has been increased to Kshs 15 million.

CMA on the Spot:
The CMA over the last few years due to the collapse of giant Uchumi Supermarkets and Francis Thuo and Partners as well as issues of insider trading that has been allegedly the case in most brokerage houses. Other issues include the issue of bouncing cheques as proceeds from the sale of securities to their clients by some rather big brokers in full view of CMA.
Unlike the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) that has been on its toes in the regulation of Commercial Banks and the Monetary Policy, the CMA has been in hibernation. The CMA has been a stumbling block in the establishment of new brokerage firms and investment banks in the industry due to its high handed rules and unclear underdeals that seem to be doing runs this institition.

Applications:
In essence there are more than 200 applications for brokerage firms estblishment gathering dust at the CMA premises but upto now nothing has been done to them and essentially means no new broekerage firm will be coming up to help meet the increasing demand amongst the investing public that has seen long queues behind brokerage houses during IPOs. Their weakness is also being demonstrated by their inability to allow the opening up of an Over The Counter (OTC) market which thrives in many countries.

Stocks Agents:
Due to CMA’s weakness, there has been a huge retail market that has sprung up since September 2005 in the form of small starters who practice as stockbrocking agents at a commission ranging from between 20-50% of the brokerage fee. Although this is a good starting point for practitioners in the industry, it denies many entrepreneurs the opportunity to receive full commission for the clients they serve very diligently and with a lot of professionalism. Indeed, the agents also need their cover to limit underpaying by the powerful brokers who control the industry. Further, there is also need for the establishment of the stocks agents association although there have been alot of stumbling blocks on the way. Infact these agents should also operate like insurance agents but apparently as of now they not allowed to serve more than one broking house.

Underdevelopment of Equity Market:
The CMA takes the blame for our underdeveloped equity market. It goes without saying that real growth should start from the root- the brokerage firms. My recommendation would be that the CMA encourages more players (brokerage firms and investment banks) to get into the industry. I would also encourage the CMA to get tougher on regulation to avoid conflict of interests that has seen an industry player being the shareholder of some listed companies as well as the chairman of the NSE. This creates a compromising situation and sometimes it would be difficult to differentiate between shareholding and management.

Quarterly Reports:
This will call for industry scanning and allowing for public scrutiny. I would propose quarterly publication of accounts in the dailies in the same way commercial banks do. This should be done with the help of external auditors to guarantee transparency. My justification for this is the fact that like commercial banks, they too are handling public funds and like a listed firm, it is of importance to know that a firm is not highly exposed and be assured of its credibility.
With such measures, there would be no cases of losers in the stock market as was witnessed in the Uchumi collapse where shareholders could not even get the par value of the share. The Capital Markets Authority recently came up with the Investor Compensation Fund.

Establishment of the Investor Compensation Fund:
The ICF is established under the Capital Market Act Cap485A of the laws of Kenya and stipulates as follows under Article 18:

18. (1) There shall be established a Fund to be known as the Investor Compensation Fund for the purposes of granting compensation to investors who suffer pecuniary loss resulting from the failure of a licensed stockbroker or dealer, to meet his contractual obligations.
(2) The Compensation Fund shall consist of -
(a) such moneys as are required to be paid into the Compensation Fund by licensed persons;
(b) such sums of money as are paid under this Act as fines or penalties or under section 34 as ill-gotten gains where those harmed are not specifically identifiable;
(c) such sums of money as accrue from interest and profits from investing Compensation Fund moneys;
(d) such sums of money recovered by or on behalf of the Authority from entities whose failure to meet their obligations to investors result in payments from the Compensation fund; and
(e) interest deemed to accrue on the proceeds of a public issue or offer for sale of shares of a company listed or to be listed on an approved securities exchange, between the closing date and the date of dispatch of shares certificates or refund cheques, to be determined at the rate prescribed by the Authority.
(f) such sums of money as are received for purposes of the Compensation Fund from any other source approved by the Minister.
(3) Moneys which have accumulated in the Compensation Fund may be invested by the Authority in such manner as may be determined by the Authority.

Fund Limits:
An issue of importance is that compensation is limited to ksh 50,000 per client whereas the total pay out should not be more than 50% of the fund. There is also a maximum of ksh 5 million per collapsed broker / investment bank is payable as compensation to investors. Since NSE and CMA normally gets commission from their sale/buy orders of 0.01% there is need to revamp and strengthen Investor Compensation leading to investors shying away from the same.

Speculative Tendencies:
As the market slowly rejuvenates and with good prospects of economic growth projected to be above 6% for 2007/08 things are looking good for our stock market. It is also important to note that the occurrences at Francis Thuo and Uchumi Supermarket have served as a good lesson to many equity investors, as they have realized that one can be a millionaire overnight (as witnessed in the KenGen IPO) or end up a poor man for the rest of his life- as was witnessed in the Uchumi collapse. But as with all speculative markets, risk takers will take positions when the market is at its lows.
In Kenya, we have a potential investment population that is almost equivalent to the number of Kenyan voters being served by only eighteen (18) brokerage firms, save for the new broker, Renaissance Capital ( Russia's biggest Investment bank and a leader in most financial sectors as asset management, corporate finance etc) that has recently been awarded the license to provide investment banking and stockbroking services in place of the collapsed Francis Thuo broking house.

Financial Deepening and innovations:
CMA and NSE have been very slow in the opening up of the Over-The-Counter (OTC) market as well as adoption of new markets and products such as financial derivatives-futures, forwards, swaps, options that would widen the scope of available investment options for investors. Therefore investors have been struggling to cash in on the few available options moslty shares, bonds and equities. In this sectors despite the rapid growth that has been witnessed over a few years ago dur to increased IPOs by companies, there is still limited options compared to other markets in Africa such as Nigeria with over 190 Listed companies and capitalization off $2.23B, Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) with over 400 listed forms and Cairo Stock Exchange and Alexandia Stock Exchange which forms Egypt Stock Exchange has over 833 companies. NSE has only 53 companies and several IPOs slated for the year.

Rogue Brokers:
CMA has also failed to reign in on rogue broker some trading in clients shares to rake in millions without bating an eyelid. Some of these brokers have become overnight millionnaires whereas their clients are leading modest lifestyles save for their stocks. In the industy, it is evident that there is very little room for competition.which has encouraged unprofessionalism. You will be surprised at how many times you miss a good deal at the expense of someone with a bigger account than you do or how many times you have issued sale or buy orders to your broker only to call them back a week and they haven't executed the same. At times they are seemingly oblivious of the happenings therein with rude receptions to accompany it.

Frequently, brokers have told their clients that they were unable to execute their orders because on that particular day, they were ‘dealing for their institutional investors’. When you are in such a predicament, you have no choice but to wait until the day when the stock broker goes ‘retail’. Sad enough, this could be long after share prices changed tremendously.

Hereditary Management and Protectionism:
Again, the management of most brokerage firms stands a big test. Notably, most of the brokerage firms are family owned and have adopted a very cyclic management system where the next of kin is always the person to take over. This has attracted a traditional approach to trading where fundamentals do not apply. It is not wrong to argue out that due to this, the same management has paved its way to control the regulators and the other players namely the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) and the NSE. The implications of this are increased protectionism when it comes to encouraging new players and sticking to old rules. As always new entrants are often seen with a suspicious eye and have to be vetted by a clique that consist of the 18 broking houses. This always need one to be on good books with them lest the deal goes sour. This is not encouraging for Kenya as an emerging market.

Market Research:
The current family set up of the brokerage firms has also kept talent at bay always employing their next of kin or people known to them. You will perhaps agree with me that there has been very limited research and commentaries that come from brokerage firms and investment banks. Contrary, the Fund Managers and Asset Managers have done limited research aimed at giving buy and sell recommendations geared towards their client needs. For the many years that the NSE 20 Share Index has been the basis of investment for most of its users, there has been no research or proposal sent for approval to CMA.

US Markets:
Compare this to the United States that has over 10 Indices rating the performance of the overall market and at least one index rating every single market segment. Being the market pros to their routing trading activity; stock brokers and investment banks are the only people who can steer growth as far as research is concerned. The US also have the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) similar to ou CMA that has been instrumental in ensuring that the market players are closely watched to avoid major corporate scandals line Enron's saga.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC):
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (commonly known as the SEC) is a United Stated government agency having primary responsibility for enforcing the federal securities laws and regulating the securities industry/stock market.
The SEC was established by the United States Congress in 1934 as an independent, non-partisan, quasi-judicial regulatory agency following years of depression caused by the Great Crash of 1929. The main reason for the creation of the SEC was to regulate the stock market and prevent corporate abuses relating to the offering and sale of securities and corporate reporting. The SEC was given the power to license and regulate stock exchanges. Currently, the SEC is responsible for administering six major laws that govern the securities industry.
These encompass the Securities Act of 1933, the Trust Indenture Act of 1939, the Investment Company Act of 1940, the Investment Advisors Act of 1940, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 amongst other statutes.
The SEC enforces the statutory requirement that public companies submit quarterly and annual reports, as well as other periodic reports amongst other regulations. More...

Compensation of investors who lost their money in collapsed stockbroker Francis Thuo kicks off this morning amid a simmering row between the Nairobi Stock Exchange and the regulator, Capital Markets Authority, over what to do with whatever remains of the Sh250 million raised from the sale of the firm’s seat at the bourse.The two institutions are fighting behind the scenes over the more than Sh100 million expected to remain after all claims are paid

Parting Shot:
A seasoned stockbroker with a good track record is an indespensable person in the pursuit of wealth. In the same breadth, an efficient management authority, in this case the CMA is fundamental in the management of all the players at the capital markets to ensure proper performance, allay investors fears and ensure security of investments for the investing public.

CMA should stop being a toothless bulldog and bite where it ought to!

Revealed: Kenya's Exclusive Clubs

In Kenya there are many 'clubs' that are often deemed as only for members who have paid the joining fee. These 'clubs' are widespread and any new member intending to join must adhere to the strict guidelines and stringent rules set by those already with membership. These rules sometimes are inhibitions (choreographed stumbling blocks) meant to hinder any jokers from joining out of whims and not with serious consideration and well thought out intention.
Welcome to Kenya a place of exclusive clubs!

From sports facilities including golf clubs, tennis courts, swimming pools, gyms to night clubs and clandestine groups with 'Strictly Members Only' signs clearly imprinted in large bold letters at their entrance points, these exclusives places abound and are places arousing curiosity amongst the outsiders who would wish to have a peek at the goings-on in the inner circles of the clubs.

Investment Groups:
Talk about Investment groups and they have also become exclusively members only and sometimes a close politically correctness and patronage is an added advantage to the grouping. Remember Trancentury Group and the associated cliques. Its membership was started a few years ago and with right investment decisions the company have managed to amass alot of resources. Thanks to its closeness to the political elite, the company is now so exclusive and any new member is at the mercy of older members after paying hefty joining fees.

The sons and daughters of the Trancentury elite are now putting their best foot forward and have hit the road with their Baraka Ltd, another investment group fashioned in the style of Trancentury and upping their stakes in the investment arena.

Baraka Ltd:
Baraka Ltd (according to reliable source) is a new investment group consisting of politically connected young upcomming business entrepreneurs (mainly sons and daughters of the Trancentury elite) running their own successdul business ventures and possessing the requisite skills and academic papers to spruce up their investment endceavors and what more do they need. The sky is the limit!

Nairobi Stock Exchange:
The Nairobi Stock Exchange has also become an exclusive club with a few wealthy persons allegedly running the shows here. Do not forget that having the coveted seat at the NSE is also a subject of political maneuvres and off-the-cuff tactics.

Renaissance Capital:
Talking about the NSE, now Renaissance Capital (K) Limited moved a step closer to securing a stockbroker’s license when it won the tender for the purchase of the coveted seat on the Nairobi Stock Exchange tha fell vacant with the unprecedented collapse of Francis Thuo and Partner. The brokerage firm's wooes began with the sudden death of its main proprietor, Francis Thou.
Renaissance Capital bid was the second priced at Kshs 251 Million to Old Mutual Investment Management Services hefty price Sh452 million.

Now Renaissance Capital, Russia's leading Investment Bank, is now ushered into one of the most exclusive clubs—the 18-member NSE.

Turning the Heat on Financial Markets:
The Renaissance Group is a leading private investment bank operating mainly in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Renaissance Capital, which specialises in investing in high opportunity emerging markets, is estimated to have a market value of between $7 billion to $10 billion (over Sh700 billion) is set to turn the heat on local financial market players as it acquires more regulatory licenses to operate other services.
NIC Bank Capital had submitted a Sh180 million bid for the seat and was third.

Parliament:
As a matter of fact 2007 is an electioneering year and with several individual declaring their intetions to vie for the various seats, it is now emerging that the parliamentary seat is another coveted place that has become the preserve of the rich. With billions likely to be poured to 'shake every corner of the republic' it goes without saying that the monied will carry the day as the electorate blinded by small perks and handouts will rush to vote in their 'cherished leader' to join exclusive club of 222 members ( thanks to the rejection of the women bill and the constituencies bill that would have seen the number increase by 50- Nominated women and 40 new constituencies) with fat pockets, hefty salaries and substantial allowances to top it up.

Welcome to the club;

STRICTLY MEMBERS ONLY

and have a members day, wont you?

East African Tiger?

Economic Survey

The recent economic survey released by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in collaboration with the Ministry of Planning and National Development reveals that the global economy continued expanding in 2006 with economic activity in most regions exceding expectation. The global growth recorded a rise of 5.1% in 2006 mainly boosted by robust growth in US, Euro Area and China.

Oil prices continued to rise with metal prices being driven mainly by the high demand in the emerging Asian markets.The Sub Saharan Africa region experienced the strongest period of the economic expansion since 1970s with 5.2% growth which is projected to increase to 6.3% in 2007.

Real Gross Domestic Product

GDP expanded by 6.1% in 2006 compared to 5.7% in 2005, 5.1% in 2004, 2.9% in 2003 and 0.5% in 2002. The growth was boosted with agriculture and Transport and communication being the main source of growth.

Over these few years of the NARC administration the economy has grown marginally with further projections of even better growth in the next decade. It is worth noting that the economic projections for the 2007/2008 is expected to near the 7% mark if all macroeconomic variables at play continue being stable as the major economic drivers realize increased activity.

With this in mind i was left wondering whether Kenya will one day realize such spectacular growth as was witnessed within the Asian economies that came to be know as the Asian Tigers.

The Tigers

This term was coined in reference to the economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. These economies were also known as Asia's Four Little Dragons and were noted for maintaining high growth rates and rapid industrialization between the early 1960s and 1990s. In the early 21st century, with the original four Tigers at or near to fully developed status, attention has increasingly shifted to other Asian economies which are experiencing rapid economic transformation at the present time which include India, China, Japan, Indonesia and Phillipines amongst others.

East African Tiger?

With the foregoing spectacular growth of many economies in East Asia over the past 30 years which amazed many professionals i wondered whether some day Kenya will realize such no mean stature. With the current upgrading of Kenya in the world map from the Least Developed Country (LDC) to the Developing world status might be a sign of good tidings to come and a step in the right direction. The Kenyan economy has realized significant activity in Agriculture with alot of Investments by both local and foreign investors has also been boosted the transport and commucation infrastructure showing signs of further growth. Transport and Comunication, Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), Information Technology etc.

Vision 2030

I believe that with the launch of the vision 2030 by the government Kenya is so close yet so far to becoming a nation to reckon with interms of the world economic muscle. However alot of things have to be in place if Kenya is to go down the road of economic prosperity with the three vision pillars of Economic, Political and Social being at interplay. It is neccessary to provide a conducive environment for Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in industrial production/manufacturing, agriculture, business process oursourcing, financial markets/money banking and finance, technology, infrastructure, mobile telephony, transport and communication, tourism, energy, building and construction etc.

The vibrancy of the Kenyan stock market is notable and with further listing of more companies in this bourse investors across the global divide will stream in to invest in the country. Correspondingly, corporate governance within most corporations will be enhanced greatly as the watchful eye of the Capital markets and the Nairobi Stock Exchange keeps them in check. The capital market activity in recent times is much touted to spur economic growth leading to eventual development that would propel us to be an economic TIGER.

I HAVE A DREAM!