2007: My Twelve Reflections

As the year draws to a close with the upcoming general elections many especially in the business cycles are taking stock of their ups and downs during the year.

1. The stock market during the early part of the year was abuzz and on a crazy upswing mode and many investors did make a kill.
2. New entrants into the stock market exclusive leage-Renaissance capital is already making inroads into the equity market with plans to invest more in stocks come the next years.
3. New IPOs slated for the year were realized but the mother of all IPOs is still being awaited and investors are bracing themselves for a bruising battle come the release. Despite the dragging court cases the governement is still determined to sell this cashcow and seal the deficit hole in thw budget that is over Kshs100B.
4. The shilling realized significant gains and is now on new highs with strong inflows from:
-Shs 26B purchase of 51% stake in Telkom Kenya.
-Transcentury continues to spur investment area with its new ideas from the spindoctors therein. It is now selling its shares to the strategic investor.
-The prospects of the dollar on the global front is dwindling
-Foreign investors flock to the NSE to get a stake in some of the blue chips and Kenya is the new emerging market where foreign investors are diverting their investments.
5. Equity continues to surprise us despite fears of imminent collapse with new profitability feats and innovative product and now the sale of 24.9% stake to Helios-a strategic partner. What more can we say it is going from strenngth to strength and their stocks might be worth your pennies...
6. The banking sector was abuzz with profitability and more is yer to come.These stocks are good buys dont you think?
7. The emergence of the pyramid schemes that fleeced many investors their hard earned monies and left many crying remember Deci, CLIP, Sasanet and many others?
8.Many investors woke up to the realization of the stock market as an investment destination.
10. Tourism earnings and prospects are good and the earnings from this sector are set to rise exponentially come the next year.
11. The economy grew by over 6% and whether this translated to more money in our pockets is subject to discussion.
12. Business Process outsourcing (BPO) the new craze in town for kenya as an emerging market and this is expected steer our country to the leagues of India and other fast growing economies.

more to come.......

Implications of Strengthening Kenya Shilling

Kenya Shilling
The Kenya Shilling has been on an upward trend in recent past and this is attributed to the entry of foreign investors into the market that has rallied the Kenyan shilling to new highs.

New Highs
Yesterday, the shilling settled at one of its strongest positions to the dollar at a mean rate of Sh65.40, the strongest level since 1999.

Causes
The strengthening of the local currency against the US dollar was steered by increased foreign exchange inflows amid subdued demand from:
1.Foreign Investors rallying to invest at the NSE including top Wallstreet operatives.
2. Offer by Helios, an international investor, last week by buying a 24.99 per cent stake in Equity Bank worth over Sh11 billion.
3. This was followed by news that France Telecom would acquire a 51 per cent controlling stake of Telkom Kenya worth Sh26 billion.
4. Increased demand for the shilling from exporters to meet end month demands.
5. Increased tourist reception into the country with projections likely to go higher with the festive season approaching despite the impending electioneering period.
6. Strategic positioning by various players before the anticipated upcoming Safaricom IPO.
7.Other variables

Players in the forex market include:
-Interbanks
-Commercial companies
-Central Banks
-Hedge funds
-Retail and forex brokers
-Investment management companies

Effects
1. Exporters will face challenges of penetrating foreign markets as exports become expensive
2. There will be a significant reductions in local revenue terms for exporters.
3. Kenya will become expensive to trade with.
4. Net foreign exchange earnings will go down.

Financial Market Engineering in Kenya

Tremendous changes are occurring in financial markets and trading organizations as a result of technology developments. These advances in IT have created significant opportunities for;
1. Economies of scale,
2. Reduced transaction costs, and
3. Enhanced trading liquidity.
New market systems also create major risks for exchanges and their operators stemming as a result of competitive forces unleashed by open, global markets and real-time access.

Engineering questions to address for each of these three areas are:
1. Microstructure – What auction or other negotiation protocol serves in the interest of participants? Which protocols are innovative and applicable?
2. Infrastructure – How can the market protocols be implemented in a decentralized, highly scalable IT architecture? What technologies should be used? Which capacity and functionality demands have the highest priority?
3. Business governance structure – Who controls the market as an organization, and enhances its financial performance? What are the promising revenue models? Which services should be offered to whom at what price?

Since the outcomes from configuring these three dimensions today are still imperfectly understood, designing markets remains a challenging task. The approach of market engineering proposes that the design of electronic markets be approached holistically. Holistically means that all areas of the design – the microstructure, the infrastructure as well as the business structure – are simultaneously considered. The configuration of these different dimensions of a market is
guided by a structured engineering process.

As we strive to enhance the performance of our financial markets, it is imperative that we consider:

-Best Execution – What do we want from our markets?
-Innovative Products, Trading Mechanisms, and Services for Electronic Markets;
-Performance of market platforms;
-Auction and matching techniques;
- Models, methods, and tools for financial market
engineering; and
-Integrating mechanisms for multiple market modalities.

Growing our emerging market is challenging but realizable. Lets build our financial markets to status of the top dogs!!!

Trancentury Going Public?

Just read a post by ribacapital on Transcentury that it is undertaking a private placement for 4,213,500 shares representing 17.7% of the company at a price of Ksh.712.00 per share.

More by ribacapital...

The Rise of Freeconomics

Now that our political arena is awash with news, informations and inundations on the the boys in blue and orange many are left dazzled.
As the day draws closer, many free-economists are churning various theories of the free things we are likely to enjoy come the general election.
Free...
Sample this:
-Free food for the needy
-Free primary and secondary education
-Free clothing for those without
-Free transport vouchers for the poor
-Free ports
-Free country
and the list goes on and on...

Well i am not alluding to any political inclination, but i am disturbed by the freeconomics being churned out in the bid to lure the electorate at the expense of real issues that bedevil our economy and investors at large.

Sample this from Moore's Law
"What happens when things get (nearly) free?" His answer is that you waste them,You use them profligately, extravagantly, irresponsibly. You shift out of conservation mode and get into exploitation mode. You do crazy things ...like promising the average email user that they'll never have to delete another message to conserve space. We will all learn how to waste newly abundant resources, retraining our minds to ignore our instincts about costs and scarcity.

Just a thought!!!!

Financial Sector Deepening Panacea for Emerging Markets

Financial deepening
This refers to the increased provision of financial services with a wider choice of services geared to all levels of society.It also refers to the macro effects of financial deepening on the larger economy. More financial deepening generally means an increased money supply. The more liquid money is available in an economy, the more opportunities exist for continued growth.
It can also play an important role in reducing risk and vulnerability for disadvantaged groups, and increasing the ability of individuals and households to access basic services like health and education, thus having a more direct impact on poverty reduction.

Financial Markets
In economics a financial market is a mechanism that allows people to easily buy and sell financial securities (such as stocks and bonds), commodities (such as precious metals or agricultural goods), and other items of value at low transaction costs and at prices that reflect the efficient market hypothesis. Financial markets have evolved significantly over several hundred years and are undergoing constant innovation to improve liquidity.

Growing Interest in financial deepening
There has been a growing interest, around the developing world and economies in transition, in the promotion of rural financial deepening. The hope of better risk sharing, more efficient allocation of capital, more productive investment, and, ultimately, higher standards of living for all is propelling the drive for stronger connections between financial systems across the world.
Moreover, attention has gradually shifted, from the earlier exclusive emphasis on credit,
towards a growing recognition of the importance of different types of financial services,
including:
-Deposit facilities and similar means to accumulate liquid reserves and hold
stores of value.
-Payments instruments and opportunities to send and receive remittances
and to exchange currencies and
-Mechanisms to manage liquidity and cope teh risks.

Asian economies, particularly emerging markets, are taking an active part in this quest, at both the regional and global levels. At the global level, Asia's integration with the international financial system is well advanced.

Financial Integration
In the years since the 1997–98 financial crisis, Asian governments have affirmed their intention to promote financial integration at the regional level with a view to both reducing vulnerabilities and improving the allocation of savings. A series of initiatives have been launched to boost regional self-sufficiency, ranging from information sharing to financing arrangements in foreign exchange. Governments are also taking steps to deepen regional bond markets to reduce reliance on bank financing and to shelter the regional economy from the possible repercussions of future volatile capital flows originating elsewhere in the world.

Financial Sector Deepening in Kenya
The Financial Sector Deepening (FSD) Trust was established in early 2005 to support the development of financial markets in Kenya as a means to stimulate wealth creation and reduce poverty.more

Safaricom Hullabaloo

Now that Safaricom is striking the headlines every new day it goes without saying that this company has higher stakes and every investor worth his salt craves for a piece of its juicy cake.
Nonetheless, there have been contradictory information coming out from several quarters with the government determined to ensure its budget deficit is reduced with the proceeds from privatization programs.
Safaricom is expected to rake in 34B. Some however have hinted that the IPO will take place between 1st and 14 December so as to allow investors time to vote during the 27th December General Elections.
Everyone is watching and despite the recent court case by some ODM members the government's determination is unrelentless.